Here’s some ERCOT PREDICTIONS OF MEETING LOAD DEMANDS. First is for Summer 2021. The 2nd is their Prediction for Winter 2020-21. And did they shoot their wad on that last one or what? But what did State Legislators do to Fix ERCOT PROBLEMS?
NOT A DAMN THING!
But how about Fuel Predictions and Drought Predictions too?
When the water supply becomes “severely at-risk” (at risk within six months), the
generator can still withdraw water for cooling water and other purposes. However, this
is a trigger point at which the owner of the resource should evaluate mitigation options.
In some cases, mitigation is not possible due to customer demand, financial, or
operational constraints. In these cases, a second trigger point would occur when the
water supply reaches the intake level and becomes non-operational.
Generation technology type impacts the amount of water a unit uses in the generation
process and for cooling. Simple cycle power generation units generally have a much
lower water consumption compared to other technologies. These generation units are
included in ERCOT’s drought risk analysis because there is some risk of a drought-
related outage. However, this risk is lower for simple cycle units than for other
generating technologies. Depending on the unit configuration and operating
characteristics, simple cycle units may continue to operate even once reservoirs or
groundwater aquifers reach low water levels.
The drought model includes a weather forecast based on temperature and precipitation
outlooks. The forecast (provided by the ERCOT Load Forecasting department) covers
the upcoming three months and adjusts the water level drought probability curves in
the drought tool.
The model also includes monitoring water discharge temperatures at coal and nuclear
plants to project the risk of thermal generation outages due to high discharge
temperatures in the 3 to 18-month horizon. Discharge temperatures from thermal
plants that exceed TCEQ defined limits could force unit de-rates or shutdowns.
Although temperature limits have not caused a generating facility’s shutdown in the
ERCOT region, generators filed TCEQ waivers to increase the temperature limits during
the 2011-2014 drought.
Air Quality Standard Permit for Electric Generating Units
Effective Date May 16, 2007
This standard permit authorizes electric generating units that generate electricity for use
by the owner or operator and/or generate electricity to be sold to the electric grid, and that
meet all of the conditions listed below.
(A) This standard permit may be used to authorize electric generating units
installed or modified after the effective date of this standard permit and that
meet the requirements of this standard permit.
(B) This standard permit may not be used to authorize boilers. Boilers may be
authorized under the Air Quality Standard Permit for Boilers; 30 TAC §
106.183, Boilers, Heaters, and Other Combustion Devices; or a permit issued
under the requirements of 30 TAC Chapter 116.
(A) East Texas Region – All counties traversed by or east of Interstate Highway 35
or Interstate Highway 37, including Bosque, Coryell, Hood, Parker, Somervell
and Wise Counties.
(B) Installed – a generating unit is installed on the site when it begins generating
(C) West Texas Region – Includes all of the state not contained in the East Texas
(D) Renewable fuel – fuel produced or derived from animal or plant products,
byproducts or wastes, or other renewable biomass sources, excluding fossil
fuels. Renewable fuels may include, but are not limited to, ethanol, biodiesel,
and biogas fuels.
(3) Administrative Requirements
(A) Electric generating units shall be registered in accordance with 30 TAC §
116.611, Registration to Use a Standard Permit, using a current Form PI-1S.
Units that meet the conditions of this standard permit do not have to meet 30
TAC § 116.610(a)(1), Applicability.
(B) Registration applications shall comply with 30 TAC § 116.614, Standard
Permit Fees, for any single unit or multiple units at a site with a total
generating capacity of 1 megawatt (MW) or greater. The fee for units or
multiple units with a total generating capacity of less than 1 MW at a site shall…
There are Laws set to Protect all of us in place for Power Plants and some were LIFTED during Winter 2021 to help some of us NOT FREEZE TO DEATH! But these Laws protect Our Environment and our…? Remove them and see how bad things get and Watch the Fish die. Wonder why fish got so much Mercury in them? Duh! We put it there! Man did that!!!
And how about Adequate kinds of Fuel? Gas? Diesel? Natural Gas? Nuclear Fuel Rods? Coal? Lignite? Wood? Wood Pulp?
Boilers are Hungry Beasts needing a butt load of fuel!
Release Date: May 6, 2021
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Based on information provided by generation owners to ERCOT, the grid operator anticipates
there will be sufficient generation to meet the summer 2021 peak demand based on expected
system conditions. ERCOT’s summer season is June through September.
With continued economic growth across the state, ERCOT anticipates a summer 2021 peak
demand of 77,144 MW, which accounts for load reductions based on an incremental rooftop
solar capacity forecast. This would be a new system-wide peak demand record for the region.
This SARA report also includes a high peak demand forecast of 80,178 MW based on 2011
summer weather conditions.
ERCOT anticipates there will be 86,862 MW of resource capacity available during summer
peak demand hours, which includes 4,808 MW of planned gas-fired, utility-scale solar and
wind capacity. Resource capacity is down slightly from the amount reported in the preliminary
summer SARA report (86,908 MW). Additionally, ERCOT expects to have 853 MW of
operational battery storage resources, which includes 618 MW of planned additions. While
some of these battery storage resources may help meet customer demand, they are not
currently included in ERCOT’s capacity contribution for summer.
The report includes a thermal and hydro outage forecast of 3,642 MW based on historical
outage data from the past three summer seasons (starting with 2018). The high outage
forecast assumes a 2,601 MW increase in forced outages, resulting in total outages of 6,243
Based on an accounting of load reduction resources that can be deployed by ERCOT during
Energy Emergency events, the 2021 summer Planning Reserve Margin is 15.7%
ERCOT CAN PROMISE THE MOON TOO!
But if Plants called and did some dirty stuff like purposely going down until the Cost hits $8000 per MW and then comes back up? I don’t trust people. They are evil and greedy. Most are. Not like perfect people at all.
So. Now we will see how the Summer 2021 plays out by an Electrical Grid so antiquated that it’s not even funny.